The Basics of Peak Oil

What is Peak Oil?

Peak Oil is the peak in global oil production, also referred to as “the end of cheap oil.” It is an incredibly serious topic, as nearly everything (food, heat, economy, etc.) in our daily lives is created with, transported by, or revolves around oil.

When will world production peak? At least 4 major studies have said 2006- 2007

References: 1. WOCAP Model , Ali SamSam Bakhtiari http://samsambakhtiari.com

2. World Petroleum Life Cycle http://dieoff.com/page133.htm

3. Oil Depletion Analysis Centre http://www.odac-info.org

“Oil Field Mega Projects 2004” report & news release

4. Assoc. for Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO)

http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL51/newsletter51.pdf

(Also..) John S. Herold, Inc, respected Wall Street research firm predicts

2007, 2008 or 2009 for major oil companies to peak production

http://www.energybulletin.net/4718.html

Key Experts in the Peak Oil Issue:

M.King Hubbert - a petroleum geologist who in 1956 he correctly predicted that the U.S.

(lower 48) would hit its peak oil production in 1970. He was right on the money. He died in 1989.

Colin Campbell – retired petroleum geologist. Founder of “ASPO”. Biggest name in the Peak Oil

movement today.

Ali Samsam Bakhtiari - senior expert with National Iranian Oil Company.

Dale Alan Pfeiffer – author of peak oil articles & http://www.survivingpeakoil.com/

Richard Heinberg – Peak Oil author. Author of two well-done, recent readable books on peak oil.

Matthew Simmons - energy policy expert, founder and chairman of Simmons International,

energy advisor to Bush/Cheney 2000

James Howard Kunstler – intense critic of suburbia & peak oil advocate. Ongoing commentary in

his “chronicle” is at http://kunstler.com/ and featured in “End of Suburbia” DVD

Suggested Reading

The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies

Richard Heinberg, 2003, ISBN 0865714827, 288 pages, $17.95

The Party’s Over/Oil depletion (16-page booklet version) $1.00 from PostCarbon.org webstore

Powerdown: Options and actions for a post-carbon world

Richard Heinberg 2004, ISBN 0865715106, 224 pages, $16.95

The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century

James Howard Kunstler, 2005, ISBN 0871138883, 320 pages, $23 (May, 2005)

High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis

Julian Darley, 2004, ISBN 1931498539, 280 pages, $18

Crossing the Rubicon: Sept. 11 & The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the

Age of Oil by Michael Ruppert, 2004, ISBN 0865715408, 512 pages , $22.95

The Oil Age is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil, 2005-2050

Matt Savinar, 2004, ISBN 0975511807, 199 pages, $27.95

(flip over for more info….)

DVD
The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream, $24

(available for purchase from http://postcarbon.org online bookstore)

Websites

http://drydipstick.com/ A Peak Oil Metadirectory. All things Peak Oil.

It lists books, websites, intros, news, articles, audio files

http://www.energybulletin.net/ Energy Bulletin. Good news/articles site

a very good “Peak Oil primer” at this site also.

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/ Wolf at the Door, “Peak Oil for Beginners”

http://LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net Peak Oil website by Matt Savinar. Very sobering.

http://www.postcarbon.org/ & http://peakoilaction.org/ Post-oil-age websites

Groups Studying Peak Oil:

ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) web= http://peakoil.net/

* Colin Campbell, founder *Kjell Aleklett, president

Interesting monthly newsletter, posted in PDF on website

The Community Solution, web = http://communitysolution.org

937-767-2161 , toll-free 866-767-2161, a group who believes community

is the solution to peak oil. Located in Yellow Springs, Ohio

Key Facts:

- it takes 10 calories of (fossil fuel) energy to produce 1 calorie of food (in the U.S.), this

includes fertilizer, tractor fuel, preparing, packaging, transport (Dale Allen Pfeiffer)

- Oil Tankers are “close to 100%” in use right now. The tanker industry considers

90% to be fully using fleet. Most tankers in use in 31 years of tanker history.

(Houston Chronicle, Nov. 13, 2004)

- Oil production in North America peaked in 1983 (Duncan’s World Oil Forecast #5)

- Oil production in the Former Soviet Union peaked in 1987 (Duncan’s..#5)

- Oil production in United Kingdom peaked in Nov. 1999 and is declining at 8% a year

(Chris Grabowski, editor Petroleum Review (UK))

- The world rate of “oil discovery” peaked in the 1960’s. (Heinberg’s books, etc.)

What about Alternative Energy?

It’s very hard to find a replacement for oil. Oil is “energy dense,” very portable and up until now has been fairly easy to get. Natural Gas has its own peaks in the near? future, with particular shortages expected much sooner (by Peak worriers) in North America. Coal and Uranium (nuclear) are not in endless supply either and each have their own pollution concerns. Hydrogen is merely an “energy carrier” and must be powered by one of the known energy sources. Hydro, Solar and Wind and Biomass are good ideas but cannot be ramped up to even begin to come close to covering current energy use.

Possible Solutions? (links to first four listed at http://energybulletin.net/primer.php )

- Raising awareness , - Relocalization

- Local Currencies and Steady State Economics (Ithaca hours / ithacahours.org)

- Permaculture (many permaculture books, magazines and websites)

- Intentional Communities. (ic.org and “Creating a Life Together” book by Diana Leafe Christian)

- Building Lifeboats (Heinberg’s “Powerdown” book)

list assembled by Will Rhodes, updated 4/12/05. Duluth, MN, USA, I am a member of Duluth Area Green Party, our energy web = http://DuluthGreens.org/energy (watch for updated info)